Theories of Fatigue: Football Case Study

Theories of Fatigue: Football Case Study What are the key theories of fatigue, how does it develop throughout the course of a game in footballers and what are its implications on  injury risk? Introduction Everyone experiences fatigue, and many of us have felt fatigue associated feelings of tiredness, lethargy and slowed reactions it in the context of sport and exercise. Fatigue represents a key limiting factor for performance in sportspeople, and it is therefore a very important topic in Sports Medicine. With this essay, I hope to provide an interesting introduction to the field of fatigue and to demonstrate its importance in sport. The physiological processes underlying the development of fatigue are complex and still widely debated. Nevertheless, I aim to discuss some key theories of the contributing central and peripheral mechanisms, their merits, and how they have developed over time. I will describe how fatigue effects footballers as a match progresses and in doing this, introduce some methods used to monitor the activity of footballers during a game and perhaps prevent injuries. To further highlight the impact of fatigue in sport, I will end by giving evidence that fatigue incre ases the risk of injury and an important example of how this might occur. Theories of Central Fatigue Central Fatigue (CF) describes processes occurring within the Central Nervous System, resulting in a reduced rate of firing by alpha motor neurones to skeletal muscle, and can be summarised as an impaired motor drive.1 Strong evidence suggests that central mechanisms play a greater role than peripheral mechanisms in fatigue caused by low-intensity exercise.2,3,4 A study published in 20072 illustrates the reduced motor drive caused by CF in low-intensity exercise particularly well. Despite having a relatively low participation of 18, I think it is worth highlighting as it exhibited tight control of unwanted variables. Low-intensity contractions were performed at 20% of maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) and high-intensity contractions at 80% of MVC. Participants were randomised between these two groups and required to perform their respective fatiguing task until failure, which unsurprisingly took longer for low-intensity contractions. Precautions were taken to isolate the elbow flex ors including strapping of the shoulder, and neither the subjects nor investigators were informed of their time to task failure as it occurred. Voluntary activation the increase in force when an electrical stimulus is delivered to a muscle during an MVC was measured before and after each task. Voluntary activation gives an indication of neural drive and was reduced after both tasks, indicating that CF had affected the elbow flexors. However, the reduction in VA was greater after low-force contractions (14%), suggesting a more significant CF impact than after high-force contractions (5%). In addition, the authors used Electromyography to measure levels of electrical activity in the elbow flexor muscles during and after each fatiguing task. Levels of electrical activity were increased, but measured less after the low-force task, again supporting the theory that CF is primarily responsible for task failure during lower intensity exercise. A key first hypothesis of the mechanism behind CF, the Serotonin-Hypothesis, was outlined in a 1987 paper.5 The authors predicted that during exercise, supra-physiological levels of serotonergic activity in the brain were the cause of lethargy and loss of drive during prolonged exercise. This link has been investigated, and it has been shown in rats that a reduced run-time to exhaustion is observed when a general Serotonin antagonist (Quipazine Dimaleate) is administered.6 This effect was not replicated when a Serotonin antagonist restricted to the periphery (Xylamidine Tosylate) was administered. This finding adds weight to the theory that serotonergic activity in the brain, and not in the periphery, plays a role in CF. The mechanism by which exercise causes increased levels of Serotonin is thought to be due to influences it has on the uptake process of Serotonin precursor, Tryptophan, across the blood-brain barrier (BBB).1 More recently, evidence has emerged through studies of amph etamine use 7,8 that dopamine also plays an important role in CF. For example, two papers have shown that a low dose of amphetamine increases endurance in fatigued rats, with endurance being assessed by measuring swimming time and treadmill time to exhaustion.7,8 The mechanism for Dopamines role in CF is not completely clear, but its involvement in motivation and reward could be significant.1 The modern theory of CF incorporates all of the above findings, suggesting that an exercise-induced increase in the ratio of Serotonin to Dopamine in the brain is responsible for feelings of lethargy during prolonged exercise.9 If correct, this means that there is the potential to artificially manipulate brain neurotransmitter levels, postpone the onset of CF and boost levels of performance. Unsurprisingly, given the potential benefits to sports medicine, a lot of research has been done investigating whether the impact of CF in exercise can be reduced. Management of nutrition can be used to artificially manipulate neurotransmitter levels. A number of studies have investigated the administration of branched-chain amino acids (BCAA), which compete with Serotonin precursor Tryptophan for transport across the BBB, on prolonged exercise performance. One such study investigated whether administering a mixture of BCAA to participants during a 30km or 42.2km race could improve race times.10 Unfortunately, the studys field-based nature meant there was a lack of control over participants during the race. Nevertheless, the authors found that running performance was significantly improved in marathon runners (42.2km) who normally ran at a slower pace, completing the race in 3.05-3.30 hours. Runners who normally posted a faster time of under 3.05h showed no significant improvement, l eading to the authors suggestion that these runners had developed resistance to feelings of CF. This is a fascinating proposition which, if its mechanism can be understood properly, could lead to targeted fitness training for professional sportspeople to overcome the effects of CF. I havent been able to find any papers investigating this and believe it would be an interesting topic for future research. As well as managing nutrition, pharmacological manipulation of neurotransmitter levels has been attempted using Serotonin reuptake inhibitors11 and Serotonin Receptor antagonists.12 These papers, along with those investigating nutritional management, struggle to provide a clear consensus regarding the mechanism of Central Fatigue and more robust studies are needed before we can state beyond doubt the roles of Serotonin and Dopamine. Theories of Peripheral Fatigue Peripheral Fatigue (PF) describes processes taking place within a muscle, which reduce its capacity to exert force. It is considered responsible for task failure in high-intensity exercise,13 including most exercises performed to build strength. In exercise with high-energy demands on a muscle, anaerobic glycolysis occurs producing lactate. Rates of lactate synthesis outstrip its rate of conversion back to glucose, causing lactate build-up and a shift in equilibrium favouring lactic acid production. Many factors have been suggested as responsible for PF, with early theories citing lactic acidosis as the probable cause,14 although scepticism surrounding this link has since emerged.15,16 A good example of this scepticism is a study which used the Yo-yo intermittent recovery test to observe changes in muscle lactate levels and PH, along with other physiological responses, when exercising to exhaustion.16 Participants were asked to run 20m back and forth at progressively increased speeds , until fatigue caused them to twice fall short of the finishing line. Those who had muscle biopsies were sampled on two occasions. During a first run, all 13 were biopsied after exhaustion, with 7 participants also being biopsied at rest beforehand. During a second run on a different occasion, the remaining 6 participants were biopsied at what was calculated to be 90% of their time to exhaustion. The aim of this comparative measure was to observe any change in metabolite levels in the time between 90% and 100% exhaustion. As expected, muscle lactate levels increased eightfold after exhaustion (51.2  ± 7.6 mmol ·kg-1) compared to rest (6.8  ± 1.1 mmol ·kg-1), and the muscle was more acidic at exhaustion (PH: 6.98  ± 0.04) than at rest (PH: 7.16  ± 0.03). However, there was no observed change in either measurement between 90% and 100% of exhaustion. It should be noted that the samples of only 7 participants were measured for this comparison a nd a larger participation would have produced even more reliable results. Nevertheless, it is hard to ignore the number of other studies with similar findings15,17 and accordingly, lactic acidosis is no longer considered a determining factor for developing PF. That is not to say that it doesnt play a smaller role in PF, in combination with other mechanisms. For example, some evidence suggests that acidosis reduces myofibrillar sensitivity to Ca2+ as H+ ions also compete for binding with Troponin C.18 A more popular theory is that Inorganic Phosphate levels are a determining factor for PF. During skeletal muscle activity, Creatine Phosphate (CP) is broken down as part of a process generating ATP, leading to reduced concentrations in exercising muscle. A review of the relevant literature estimated that intense periods of exercise during football matches causes levels of CP to fall by 40%.19 This estimate came after considering the time delay between exercise and biopsy in which resynthesis of CP will take place. Dephosphorylation of CP unsurprisingly leads to increased levels of inorganic Phosphate (Pi) in muscle cells, and this has been shown to correlate with fatigue. One study electrically stimulated the human Tibialis Anterior muscle to induce fatigue and investigate how levels of metabolites changed in relation to reduced contractile force.20 A pneumatic cuff was used to keep the muscle ischaemic, based on the assumption that this would prevent metabolite levels changing betwe en contractions and measuring of metabolites using Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS). Metabolites were measured at rest and after 3, 10, 15 and 20 induced contractions. The authors found that force declined to 63% of initial force after 20 contractions. Levels of Pi increased just over fivefold after 20 contractions (29.6 m.moles per litre of intracellular water) compared to at rest (5.6 mmoles) and Figure 1 demonstrates the correlation observed between Pi concentration and Force. Another study used genetically modified mice lacking Creatine Kinase (CK), which catalyses the reaction responsible for regenerating CP, in their skeletal muscle.21 This provided a good model for further investigating the association between Pi and fatigue. Skeletal muscle fibres from the genetically modified mice had a higher Pi concentration at rest compared to wild-type fibres and generated a significantly lower force upon electrical stimulation of tetanus. Additionally, they displayed no significan t reduction in force even after 100 induced tetanic contractions, whereas force was reduced to 2+ in the Sarcoplasmic Reticulum,22 meaning less Ca2+ is available for release during force production. The two suggested mechanisms for this are that either high levels of Pi inhibit uptake of Ca2+ by the SR,23 or that Pi enters the SR and precipitates with Ca2+.24 How fatigue develops over the course of a game in footballersA couple of techniques are used to collect data on footballers activity patterns throughout a match. GPS and accelerometer technology can be worn by players during matches to collect data on their locomotor activities.25 Alternatively, it is possible to analyse film of players and use computerised coding to discern their activity patterns to a high degree of accuracy and reproducibility.26 A 2003 study adopting this technique filmed eighteen top-level professional footballers over 129 matches, along with 24 footballers of a moderate standard.27 The authors recorded the frequency and duration of various levels of activity, which were categorised according to speed, and presented the data for every 5, 15, 45 and 90 minutes. This allowed them to compare different stages of the match and pinpoint when levels of athletic performance changed. As well as this, lots of comparisons were made between players of different standards an d playing positions which, whilst interesting, arent wholly relevant to the topic of fatigue. Top-level footballers ran for longer periods at both low and high intensities, and covered more distance in the first half (5.51  ± 0.10km) compared to the second half (5.35  ± 0.09km) of matches. Figure 2 gives a good visualisation of how distances covered during high-intensity running were unevenly distributed between halves. Distance covered whilst sprinting for top-level footballers was 43% less in the last 15 minutes than the first 15 minutes. Arguably, this could be put down to the fact that the outcome of matches had already been decided as the last 15 minutes approached. However, this is unlikely to be the case because the majority of matches observed had a score difference of only one goal or less approaching this stage, meaning neither team could afford to deliberately lower their intensity. It was also found that substitutes, in comparison to those playing the entir e match, undertook 25% more high-intensity running and 63% more sprinting during the last 15 minutes, presumable because they were not fatigued. A 2016 study which used GPS and accelerometer data, presented findings similar to the 2003 study when they observed a significant decrease in locomotor efficiency towards the end of each half in English Championship U21 footballers.25For this study, investigators used a new unit called PlayerLoadà ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢ per meter, suggesting that it gives a good representation of locomotor efficiency and may, therefore, be useful for informing decision making before or within a match. For example, squad rotation or training regime decisions could be made base on the locomotor efficiency shown by a player during training or a previous game. This is an example of a very important area of Sports Medicine which is the prevention of injuries by properly managing players outside of match-play. Overall, we can clearly see that footballers become fatigued t hroughout the course of a match, which Id like to suggest may be due to the gradual onset of CF. The authors of the 2003 study also wanted to establish whether a temporary fatigue effect existed.27 To do this, they identified 5 minutes over which each player covered their peak distance in high-intensity running, representing their most taxing period of exercise for each match. In the 5 minutes following this, on average, each player performed 12% less high-intensity running that the average for all 5 minute periods. This demonstrates that players are affected by a temporary fatigue within matches, potentially because they are experiencing PF induced by a period of very high-intensity exercise. The implications fatigue on injury risk Injuries represent a huge challenge for professional sports clubs, as players are rendered unavailable for selection whilst also costing money in wages. This problem is well illustrated by the fact that over 15 seasons for 50 elite football clubs, the average proportion of a squad available for match selection has consistently been below 90%.28 A number of huge epidemiological studies have been set up to investigated the incidence and nature of injuries in professional footballers, 28,29 the most prominent being the UEFA Elite Club Injury Study which is updated every season. Over the 2015/16 season, injury data from 29 clubs comprising of an average of 59 matches and 218 training sessions per team was analysed. Over this period, the study found that that on average 0.6 matches and 2.1 training sessions were missed per player per month due to injury. Data from the UEFA Elite Club Injury Study can be used to analyse patterns of injury occurrence during matches. There is an increasing incidence of injuries occurring over time in both halves of football matches, a trend observed in the three most common injury types: strains, sprains, and contusions.28 This strongly correlates with the pattern by which fatigue has been shown to develop over the course of a game,25.27 and it is fair to say that fatigue almost definitely the cause of this increased incidence. A more specific example of how fatigue impacts injury risk can be seen in a 2009 study, set out to establish a link between fatiguing mechanisms and an increased risk of injury to the Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) of the knee.30 ACL injury is particularly devastating for a footballer, not least because of its long-term impacts. A follow up of 176 top level footballers in Sweden who had suffered ACL injuries, found that only 30% were still playing after three years compared to 80% in a control group.31Participation in the 2009 study30 was by 20 female student-athletes who had no history of previous injury to the knee or lower extremities. The biomechanics of participants lower limb joints were recorded as they performed randomly ordered, unanticipated jump landings, according to a light stimulus activated just after take-off. They then underwent a fatiguing task consisting of three single leg squats, after which biomechanics were recorded again. This cycle was continued until participants could no longer perform the three single leg squats unassisted, indicating maximal fatigue. Fatigue elicited a number of changes to biomechanics, importantly including a reduction in knee flexion and an increase in the angle of knee rotation, which promote the risk of ACL injury. Conclusion The importance Serotonin and Dopamine in controlling CF onset has emerged over time. A developed theory of CF is yet to be proven beyond doubt, despite there being lots of research investigating it. This could be because it is difficult, especially in humans, to structure a study with tight control over the levels of multiple neurotransmitters in the brain. It is also possible that there are more factors contributing to CF which are yet to be identified or supported by evidence. It has been suggested that resistance to CF can be developed through training, which could prove useful to Sports Medicine if investigate further. An early theory involving the build-up of lactic acid in muscle playing a key role in PF has been widely rejected by the scientific, but there is lots of evidence pointing towards increased levels of Pi being a determining factor. Ultimately, PF is probably a combined response to a number of intramuscular mechanisms. Some more potential contributors to this which I have not had a chance to touch upon include depleted glycogen levels in muscle32and altered muscle fibre membrane potentials.33 The influence that fatigue has on sporting performance is significant and can be clearly observed over the course of football matches. Tools exist, including measures of a players locomotor efficiency, which play an important role in preventing injury due to fatigue. Whilst there is evidence that fatigue has an impact on cognitive abilities,34,35 there are no studies I am aware of which investigate this in a footballing or sporting context. It would be interesting to see if there is a relationship between fatigue and the quality of a players decision making. Epidemiological studies have shown that there is a clear correlation between the onset of fatigue in football matches and a spike in incidences of injuries. There are many examples of injuries for which fatigue is a significant risk factor, with one example being ACL damage. This essay should provide a useful introduction to different areas of interest involving fatigue, all of which can be researched further. References Meeusen R, Watson P, Hasegawa H, Roelands B, Piacentini M. Central Fatigue: The Serotonin Hypothesis and beyond. Sports Medicine. 2006;36(10):881-909. Yoon T, Schlinder Delap B, Griffith E, Hunter S. Mechanisms of fatigue differ after low- and high-force fatiguing contractions in men and women. Muscle Nerve. 2007;36(4):515-524. Gauche E, Couturier A, Lepers R, Michaut A, Rabita G, Hausswirth C. Neuromuscular fatigue following high versus low-intensity eccentric exercise of biceps brachii muscle. Journal of Electromyography and Kinesiology. 2009;19(6):481-486. ZajƦc A, Chalimoniuk M, GoÅ‚aņº A, Lngfort J, Maszczyk A. Central and Peripheral Fatigue During Resistance Exercise A Critical Review. 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European Journal of Applied Physiology and Occupational Physiology. 1991;63(2):83-88. Wilson W, Maughan R. Evidence for a possible role of 5-hydroxytryptamine in the genesis of fatigue in man: administration of paroxetine, a 5-HT re-uptake inhibitor, reduces the capacity to perform prolonged exercise. Experimental Physiology. 1992;77(6):921-924. Pannier J, Bouckaert J, Lefebvre R. The antiserotonin agent pizotifen does not increase endurance performance in humans. European Journal of Applied Physiology and Occupational Physiology. 1995;72(1-2):175-178. Froyd C, Millet G, Noakes T. The development of peripheral fatigue and short-term recovery during self-paced high-intensity exercise. The Journal of Physiology. 2013;591(5):1339-1346. Allen DG, Westerblad H, Là ¤nnergren J. The role of intracellular acidosis in muscle fatigue. Adv Exp Med Biol. 1995;384(1):57-68. Bangsbo J, Juel C. Counterpoint: lactic acid accumulation is a disadvantage during muscle activity. J Appl Physiol. 2006;100(4):1412-1413. Krustrup P, Mohr M, Amstrup T, Rysgaard T, Johansen J, Steensberg A et al. The Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test: Physiological Response, Reliability, and Validity. Medicine Science in Sports Exercise. 2003;35(4):697-705. Bangsbo J, Graham T, Kiens B, Saltin B. Elevated muscle glycogen and anaerobic energy production during exhaustive exercise in man. The Journal of Physiology. 1992;451(1):205-227. Shiraishi F, Yamamoto K. The Effect of Partial Removal of Troponin I and C on the Ca2+-Sensitive ATPase Activity of Rabbit Skeletal Myofibrils1. The Journal of Biochemistry. 1994;115(1):171-173. Bangsbo J, Iaia F, Krustrup P. Metabolic Response and Fatigue in Soccer. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance. 2007;2(2):111-127. Jones D, Turner D, McIntyre D, Newham D. Energy turnover in relation to slowing of contractile properties during fatiguing contractions of the human anterior tibialis muscle. The Journal of Physiology. 2009;587(17):4329-4338. Dahlstedt A, Katz A, Westerblad H. Role of myoplasmic phosphate in contractile function of skeletal muscle: studies on creatine kinase-deficient mice. The Journal of Physiology. 2001;533(2):379-388. Kabbara Allen D. The role of calcium stores in fatigue of isolated single muscle fibres from the cane toad. The Journal of Physiology. 1999;519(1):169-176. Characteristics of phosphate-induced Ca(2+) efflux from the SR in mechanically skinned rat skeletal muscle fibers. Am J Physiol Cell Physiol. 2000;278(1):126-135. Fryer M, Owen V, Lamb G, Stephenson D. Effects of creatine phosphate and P(i) on Ca2+ movements and tension development in rat skinned skeletal muscle fibres. The Journal of Physiology. 1995;482(1):123-140. Barrett S, Midgley A, Reeves M, Joel T, Franklin E, Heyworth R et al. The within-match patterns of locomotor efficiency during professional soccer match play: Implications for injury risk?. 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Soccer after anterior cruciate ligament injury- an incompatible combination? A national survey of incidence and risk factors and a 7-year follow-up of 310 players. Acta Orthopaedica Scandinavica. 1995;66(2):107-112. Ørtenblad N, Westerblad H, Nielsen J. Muscle glycogen stores and fatigue. The Journal of Physiology. 2013;591(18):4405-4413. Green H. Membrane Excitability, Weakness, and Fatigue. Canadian Journal of Applied Physiology. 2004;29(3):291-307. Fà ©ry Y, Ferry A, Hofe A, Rieu M. Effect of Physical Exhaustion on Cognitive Functioning. Perceptual and Motor Skills. 1997;84(1):291-298. Abd-Elfattah H, Abdelazeim F, Elshennawy S. Physical and cognitive consequences of fatigue: A review. Journal of Advanced Research. 2015;6(3):351-358.

Four Steps to Forecast Total Market Demand Essay

Such forecasts are crucial since companies must begin building new generating plants five to ten years before they are to come on line. But during the 1975–1985 period, load actually grew at only a 2% rate. Despite the postponement or cancellation of many projects, the excess generating capacity has hurt the industry financial situation and led to higher customer rates. ? The petroleum industry invested $500 billion worldwide in 1980 and 1981 because it expected oil prices to rise 50% by 1985. The estimate was based on forecasts that the market would grow from 52 million barrels of oil a day in 1979 to 60 million barrels in 1985. Instead, demand had fallen to 46 million barrels by 1985. Prices collapsed, creating huge losses in drilling, production, refining, and shipping investments. Bill Barnett is a principal in the Atlanta office of McKinsey & Company. He is a leader of the firm’s Microeconomics Center, and his client work has focused on business unit and corporate strategy. ? In 1983 and 1984, 67 new types of business personal computers were introduced to the U. S. market, and most companies were expecting explosive growth. One industry forecasting service projected an installed base of 27 million units by 1988; another predicted 28 million units by 1987. In fact, only 15 million units had been shipped by 1986. By then, many manufacturers had abandoned the PC market or gone out of business altogether. The inaccurate suppositions did not stem from a lack of forecasting techniques; regression analysis, historical trend smoothing, and others were available to all the players. Instead, they shared a mistaken fundamental assumption: that relationships driving demand in the past would continue unaltered. The companies didn’t foresee changes in end-user behavior or understand their market’s saturation point. None realized that history can be an unreliable guide as domestic economies become more international, new technologies emerge, and industries evolve. As a result of changes like these, many managers have come to distrust traditional techniques. Some even throw up their hands and assume that business planning must proceed without good demand forecasts. I disagree. It is possible to develop valuable insights into future market conditions and demand levels based on a deep understanding of the forces behind total-market demand. These insights can Copyright 1988 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. sometimes make the difference between a winning strategy and one that flounders. A forecast of total-market demand won’t guarantee a successful strategy. But without it, decisions on investment, marketing support, and other resource allocations will be based on hidden, unconscious assumptions about industrywide requirements, and they’ll often be wrong. By gauging total-market demand explicitly, you have a better chance of controlling your company’s destiny. Merely going through the process has merit for a management team. Instead of just coming out with pat answers, numbers, and targets, the team is forced to rethink the competitive environment. Total-market forecasting is only the first stage in creating a strategy. When you’ve finished your forecast, you’re not done with the planning process by any means. There are four steps in any total-market forecast: 1. Define the market. 2. Divide total industry demand into its main components. 3. Forecast the drivers of demand in each segment and project how they are likely to change. . Conduct sensitivity analyses to understand the most critical assumptions and to gauge risks to the baseline forecast. Defining the Market At the outset, it’s best to be overly inclusive in defining the total market. Define it broadly enough to include all potential end users so that you can both identify the appropriate drivers of demand and reduce the risk of surprise product substitutions. The factors that drive forecasts of total-market size differ markedly from those that determine a particular product’s market share or product-category share. For example, total-market demand for office telecommunications products nationally depends in part on the number of people in offices and their needs and habits, while total demand for PBX systems depends on how they compare on price and benefits with substitute products like the local telephone company’s central office switching service. Beyond this, demand for a particular PBX is a function of price and benefit comparisons with other PBXs. In defining the market, an understanding of product substitution is critical. Customers might behave differently if the price or performance of potential substitute products changes. One company studying total demand for industrial paper tubes had to consider closely related uses of metal and plastic tubes 4 to prevent customer switching among tubes from biasing the results. Understand, too, that a completely new product could displace one that hitherto had comprised the entire market—like the electronic calculator, which eliminated the slide rule. For a while after AT&T’s divestiture, the Bell telephone companies continued to forecast volume of long-distance calls by using historical trend lines of their revenues—as if they were still part of a monopoly. Naturally, these forecasts grew more inaccurate with time as end users were presented with new choices. The companies are now broadening their market definitions to take account of heightened competition from other longdistance carriers. There are several ways you can make sure you include all important substitute products (both current and potential). From interviews with industrial customers you can learn about substitutes they are studying or about product usage patterns that imply future switching opportunities. Moreover, market research can lead to insights about consumer products. Speaking with experts in the relevant technologies or reviewing technological literature can help you identify potential developments that could threaten your industry. Finally, careful quantification of the economic value of alternative products to different customers can yield deep insights into potential switching behavior—for example, how oil price movements would affect plastics prices, which in turn would affect plastic products’ ability to substitute for metal or paper. Analyses like these can lead to the construction of industry demand curves—graphs representing the relationship between price and volume. With an appropriate definition, the total-industry demand curves will often be steeper than demand curves for individual products in the industry. Consumers, for example, are far more likely to switch from Maxwell House to Folgers coffee if Maxwell House’s prices increase than they are to stop buying coffee if all coffee prices rise. In some cases, managers can make quick judgments about market definition. In other cases, they’ll have to give their market considerable thought and analysis. A total-market forecast may not be critical to business strategy if market definition is very difficult or the products under study have small market shares. Instead, your principal challenge may be to understand product substitution and competitiveness. One company analyzed the potential market for new consumer food cans, and it concluded that growth trends in food product markets were not critical to the strategy question. What was critical was knowing the value positions of the new packagesJuly–August 1988 elative to metal cans, glass jars, and composite cans. So the company spent time on that subject. Dividing Demand into Component Parts The second step in forecasting is to divide total demand into its main components for separate analysis. There are two criteria to keep in mind when choosing segments: make each category small and homogeneous enough so that the drivers of demand will apply consistently across its various elements; make each large enough so that the analysis will be worth the effort. Of course, this is a matter of judgment. You may find it useful in aking this judgment to imagine alternative segmentations (based on enduse customer groups, for example, or type of purchase). Then hypothesize their key drivers of demand (discussed later) and decide how much detail is required to capture the true situation. As the assessment continues, managers can return to this stage and reexamine whether the initial decisions still stand up. Managers may wish to use a ‘‘tree’’ diagram like the accompanying one constructed by a management team in 1985 to study demand for paper. In this disguised example, industry data permitted the division of demand into 12 end-use categories. Some categories, like business forms and reprographic paper, were big contributors to total consumption; others, such as labels, were not. One (other converting) was fairly large but too diverse for deep analysis. The team focused on the four segments that accounted for 80% of 1985 demand. It then developed secondary branches of the tree to further dissect these categories and to determine their drivers of demand. It analyzed the remaining segments less completely (that is, via a regression against broad macroeconomic trends). Other companies have used similar methods to segment total demand. One company divided demand for maritime satellite terminals by type of ship (e. g. , seismic ships, bulk/cargo/container ships). Another divided demand for long-distance telephone service into business and residential customers and then subdivided it by usage level. And a third segmented consumer appliances into three purchase types—appliances used in new home construction, replacement appliance sales in existing homes, and appliance penetration in existing homes. In thinking about market divisions, managers need to decide whether to use existing data on segment sizes or to commission research to get an independent estimate. Reliable public information on historHARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW July–August 1988 ical demand levels by segment is available for many big U. S. industries (like steel, automobiles, and natural gas) from industry associations, the federal government, off-the-shelf studies by industry experts, or ongoing market data services. For some foreign markets and less well-researched industries in the United States, like the labels industry, you may have to get independent estimates. Even with good data sources, however, the readily available information may not be divided into the best categories to support an insightful analysis. In these cases, managers must decide whether to develop their forecasts based on the available historical data or to undertake their own market research programs, which can be timeconsuming and expensive. Note that while such segmentation is sufficient for forecasting total demand, it may not create categories useful for developing a marketing strategy. A single product may be driven by entirely different factors. One study of industrial components found that consumer industry categories provided a good basis for projecting total-market demand but gave only limited help in formulating a strategy based on customer preferences: distinguishing those who buy on price from those who buy on service, product quality, or other benefits. Such buying-factor categories generally do not correlate with the customer industry categories used for forecasting. A strong sales force, however, can identify customer preferences and develop appropriate account tactics for each one. Forecasting the Drivers of Demand The third step is to understand and forecast the drivers of demand in each category. Here you can make good use of regressions and other statistical techniques to find some causes for changes in historical demand. But this is only a start. The tougher challenge is to look beyond the data on which regressions can easily be based to other factors where data are much harder to find. Then you need to develop a point of view on how those other factors may themselves change in the future. An end-use analysis from the commodity paper example, reprographic paper, is shown in the accompanying chart. The management team, using available data, divided reprographic paper into two categories: plain-paper copier paper and nonimpact page printer paper. Without this important differentiation, the drivers of demand would have been masked, making it hard to forecast effectively. In most cases, managers can safely assume that demand is affected both by macroeconomic vari5 Components of Uncoated White Paper Making Up Total Demand (thousands of tons) End-Use Category Business Forms Commercial Printing Reprographics Envelopes Other Converting Total Demand Stationery and Tablet Books Directories Catalogs Magazines Inserts Labels Reviewed in Depth Percent of Total 1985 Demand 25% 25 20 10 5 5 5 1 or less ables and by industry-specific developments. In looking at plain-paper copier paper, the team used simple and multiple regression analyses to test relationships with macroeconomic factors like white-collar workers, population, and economic performance. Most of the factors had a significant effect on demand. Intuitively, it also made sense to the team that the level of business activity would relate to paper consumption levels. Economists sometimes refer to growth in demand due to factors like these as an ‘‘outward shift’’ in the demand curve—toward a greater quantity demanded at a given price. ) Demand growth for copy paper, however, had exceeded the real rate of economic growth and the challenge was to find what other factors had been causing this. The team hypothesized that declining copy costs had caused this increased usage. The relationship was proved by estimating the substantial cost reductions that had occurred, combining those with numbers of tons produced over time, and then fashioning an indicative demand curve for copy paper. See the chart ‘‘Understanding Copy Paper Demand Drivers. ’’) The clear relationship between cost and volume meant that cost reductions had been an important cause of past demand growth. (Economists sometimes describe this as a downward-shifting supply curve leading to movement down the demand curve. ) Further major declines in cost per copy seemed unlikely because paper costs were expected to remain flat, and the data indicated little increase in 6 price elasticity, even if cost per copy fell further. So the team concluded that usage growth (per level of economic performance) was likely to continue the flattening trend begun in 1983: growth in copy paper consumption would be largely a function of economic growth, not cost declines as in the past. The team then reviewed several econometric services forecasts to develop a base case economic forecast. Similar studies have been performed in other industries. A simple one was the industrial components analysis mentioned before, a case where the total forecast was used as background but was not critical to the company’s strategy decision. Here the team divided demand into its consuming industries and then asked experts in each industry for production forecasts. Total demand for components was projected on the assumption that it would move parallel to a weight-averaged forecast of these customer industries. Actual demand three years later was 2% above the team’s prediction, probably because the industry experts underestimated the impact of the economic recovery of 1984 and 1985. In another example, a team forecasting demand for maritime satellite terminals extrapolated past penetration curves for each of five categories of ships.

Brazil Government Essay

Brazil entered the new millennium mired in economic difficulties. Macroeconomic conditions will have a great influence on political stability, what kinds of laws are passed, the ability of businesses to succeed, the pace at which new technology is used, the availability of jobs, and on incomes, poverty and crime. Brazil is a constitutional republic of federated states, the federal districts, and territories. This present constitution was proclaimed in October 1988, replacing a 1969 document. The states of Brazil have their own government with the powers in all matters not specifically reserved for the Brazilian government. The 1988 constitution abolished the national Security Law, which had been used to stifle political disagreement; outlaws torture. The National Security Law provided for various forms of popular voting, initiatives, and referendums; forbids virtually all forms of censorship; guarantees privacy rights and extends the right to strike to all workers. The military retains its power to intervene in the political system to preserve law and order. Brazil has long been recognized for its large population, great natural resources, bold ideas and potential for growth. It has made progress in economic adjustment over the last several years, opening trade, reducing inflation, succeeding with privatization and garnering investor confidence. However, there have been concerns inside and outside of the country about government finances and especially public pensions, political stability and political will, vulnerability to international economic and financial developments and to the return of high inflation, relatively low investment in export industries, and the social and political consequences of income inequality. Several studies on Brazilian public opinion towards this country’s vulnerability and its domestic stability prove there is consensus that vulnerability is an impeding factor to the country’s aspiration to a more strategic place among the world powers. The Brazilian elite views the interests of their country and those of the U. S. as essentially incompatible. During the Expansion of 1600’s, Gold was discovered. Brazil’s other natural resources are bauxite, iron ore, manganese, nickel, phosphates, platinum, tin, uranium, petroleum, hydropower, and timber. General Electric is among the many powerful transnational corporations and UE employers with factories in Brazil. Economy overview is possessing large nd well-developed agricultural, mining, manufacturing and service sectors, Brazil’s economy outweighs that of all other South American countries and is expanding its presence in world markets. The maintenance of large current account deficits via capital account surpluses became problematic as investors became more risk averse to emerging market exposure as a consequence of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the Russian bond default in August 1998. After crafting a fiscal adjustment program and pledging progress on structural reform, Brazil received a $41. billion IMF led international support program in November 1998. In January 1999, Brazilian Central Bank announces that the real would no longer be pegged to the US dollar. This devaluation helped moderate the downturn in economic growth in 1999 that investors had expressed concerns about over the summer of 1998, and the country posted moderate GDP growth. Economic growth slowed considerably in 2001-2002 to less than 2% because of a slowdown in major markets and the hiking of interest rates by Central Bank to combat inflationary pressures. Poor economic conditions may lead to resistance to external cultural influences, while improvement may mean greater acceptance of practices associated with success in other nations and more interaction with cultures that differ in behavior or values. Economic recovery and growth may ease the difficulties of restructuring business and public affairs and opening markets to competition. It may lead to more trade and foreign investment, and a greater role for Brazil in the region and the world. Alternatively, crises may be the catalysts for change and adaptation to a changing world. The international debt crisis of the early l980s led multinational agencies, the governments of wealthy nations, and a growing number of poorer nations to adopt a reform agenda intended to restore economic stability, restart growth, reduce debt to manageable proportions, and restructure economies to reduce their vulnerability and improve prospects for sustained growth. This international reform agenda expanded dramatically in the course of the l980s and l990s. At the beginning of the debt crisis, attention focused on macro-economic stabilization measures. That initial task was quickly expanded to include structural changes regarded as essential to restore growth and reduce debt. John Williamson’s 1989 summary of the Washington Consensus listed, in addition to fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate measures, reforms to reduce government intervention and permit markets to function more effectively, including trade and financial liberalization, increased receptivity to foreign direct investment, deregulation, and privatization. These structural changes mostly entailed dismantling government regulations and restrictions on private economic transactions. The closest the Consensus came to more complex institutional reforms was the rather tentative inclusion, as the very last item, of property rights protection. Williamson noted that this was intended to signal recognition that institutional features were also important determinants of growth. By l989 the World Bank was beginning to use a broader concept, â€Å"creation of an enabling environment [for effective markets]. Williamson remarked that concept might be preferable, but it remained largely undefined. More than a decade later, at the beginning of the new century, the reform agenda has ballooned to include a broad array of institutional reforms, and to emphasize poverty reduction as well as growth and stability. Responsible macro-economic management and reduced state intervention in the economy remain crucial, but they are now viewed as far from sufficient for growth and poverty reduction. Reform of the state itself, including the civil service, the police, the system of justice, and reduced corruption are part of the essential â€Å"enabling environment. † Social sector reforms in pensions, health and education, as well as far-reaching changes in labor markets and industrial relations are also squarely on the expanded international agenda. These further reforms are much more demanding than the initial agenda: they require not merely the dismantling of regulations, tariffs, and subsidies but fundamental changes in the design and operations of core public functions and institutions. The Brazilian society is divided in those who approve Cardoso’s programs of stabilization and reforms, and those who favor a rather ‘desarrollista’ (developmental) kind of policy. Those who blame the government and those who blame the opposition for the failure in adopting the reforms needed to avoid the financial crisis regionally, neighboring countries agreed upon Brazil’s high performance in industry, trade, new investments and competitiveness, but their evaluation of Brazil’s ability to guarantee economic and political stability were rather low. In contrast, the Brazilian public opinion proved much more confident concerning this matter. When the analysis of the public opinion takes into account structural factors, long-term policy results and a rather contemporary perception of competitiveness, it excludes short-term populist expectations, paternalistic and contradictory demand and any resentful mood concerning the international context and the globalized economy. The politics of economic reforms have been much analyzed over the past two decades. The question of what political capacities and institutional arrangements are key to effective reforms has been one major focus of attention. During the l970s and l980s there was an on-going debate between those who asserted that only authoritarian governments could sustain sufficient macro-economic discipline to manage economies effectively, and those who challenged that view. By the late l980s, it was quite clear that broad generalizations about types of regimes — democracies versus authoritarian systems — were far too crude to offer useful generalizations and explanations. A much narrower version of the old debate persisted, however, in the effort to determine whether effective economic reforms required considerable concentration of executive authority and power (within the framework of more or less democratic as well as authoritarian systems). Party leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (known universally as Lula), will stick to his recent promises of honoring outstanding contacts. Lula inherited an economy in shambles. Working people suffered as the former government carried out neoliberal policies, including privatization and cutbacks in social programs. Two million people are unemployed in Sao Paolo alone, the most industrialized region in Brazil, with 1. 5 million young people entering the labor force each year. Lula’s government decided to continue neoliberal monetary policies to reassure business and encourage investment. The results have helped regain economic stability: the value of bonds has increased from 38 to 90 percent of their face value, meaning that far less is spent on public debt. Banks lowered Brazil’s risk assessment. Credit lines are back and new lines of credit are open. But these results reflect decisions by the government to maintain high interest rates and prioritize growth over income distribution at least in the short run. At the time of the CUT congress, the new government’s most controversial proposal aimed at cutting retirement payments to higher-paid public employees, averting bankruptcy of the system and moving towards an equalization of public and private benefits. This is essentially a proposal from the old government. Default is inevitable, and should be undertaken by Lula as soon as possible, because delaying default simply increases Brazil’s liabilities. Brazil’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product, even after more than $100 billion of privatization proceeds, has doubled since Fernando Henrique Cardoso became president in 1994, from about 30 percent to 58 percent today – a figure that is climbing as the Brazilian real declines. Of this debt, approximately 20 percent is international (after the country’s foreign exchange reserves have been netted out), of which half is owed to the international financial institutions. In addition, a very large portion of Brazil’s debt is greatly increased in cost by economic turmoil. Forty percent of total debt is denominated in dollars, so increases as a percentage of GDP when the Brazilian real drops in value against the dollar. An additional 37 percent of debt is linked to the Selic overnight money market rate, so becomes very expensive when, as for most of the last 8 years, uncertainty raises domestic interest rates. A further 8 percent of Brazil’s total debt is inflation-linked, so has been a â€Å"good deal† for the country in the last eight years but could become very expensive if the country returns to hyperinflation. Brazil’s public debt over the 1994-2001 period was 16. 1 percent a year, and the projected real interest rate on Brazil’s public debt for 2002 is 21 percent. If interest rates remain at these levels, the debt will become unmanageable, rising above 100 percent of GDP in 2006-2009, and spiraling thereafter, if policy remains as at present. Brazil’s balance of payments would also be a problem, because public debt is 4 times the level of the country’s export earnings. The government’s economic policy in 1994-2002 has followed IMF recommendations closely, and been fairly restrictive, with the primary budget surplus (before interest payments) in the range of 3 percent to 4 percent of GDP, although in Cardoso’s first term, 1994-98, budgetary policy was less tight, with only a small primary surplus. The first popularly elected president in Brazil in 30 years, Fernando Collor de Mello took office on March 15, 1990. In September 1992, Collor was impeached by the lower house of the Brazilian legislature on charges of corruption. In December 1992, Collor resigned as president of Brazil, and the Brazilian Senate convicted him of the corruption charges. There needs to be a change in Brazilians’ elite mentality of entitlement and privilege – in detriment of the nation’s general good. This mentality was inherited from colonial times. Brazilian society is very corrupt and stratified. Each class defends very specific and sometimes conflicting interests, dismissing what is best for the country as a whole. This will take time to change and until it does, the country won’t live up to its potential. Brazil will only have a bright future when its basic needs such as health and education and issues such as social inequality and wealth concentration are dealt with in a continuous and serious manner. In Brazil, the role of government is much more intrusive than in the United States. This is not only a matter of taxation, but also in legal organization and in the regulatory role. In small and medium businesses, this aspect is less evident. In large-scale foreign investment situations, a close personal official relationship is fundamental. Lobbying by large corporations and trade groups is even more aggressive than in U. S. Government contracts are often awarded according to relationships and connections rather than pure technical or financial merit. This is a result of the paternalistic, nepotistic culture that has existed for hundreds of years. Brazil has one of the most complex systems of tax law in the world, which consequently makes Brazilian goods more expensive because companies pay more taxes than in other countries. Brazil’s overall tax burden is equivalent to 30% of the country’s gross domestic product, while neighboring countries such as Chile and Argentine have a tax burden equivalent to 15% and 20% of gross domestic product respectively. Experts say that due to the high tax rates, tax evasion is estimated to be 30% of the total revenue. The Brazilian government is seeking a constitutional change that would simplify the country’s tax system and so make Brazilian goods more competitive internationally. Pedro Parente, executive secretary at the Finance Ministry said the government plans to propose a constitutional amendment to eliminate taxes on industrialized products, a state value-added tax, a city tax on services and two types of social contributions. It place of all that, the government would like to impose a nationwide value-added tax, state and city consumer taxes and an excise tax on a select list of products as well as remove value-added taxes on goods for export. To change the tax system, the government must amend the constitution, which requires approval by two- fifths of both lower and upper houses of Congress in two voting rounds. New president DA SILVA, who took office January 1, 2003, has given priority to reforming the complex tax code, trimming the overblown civil service pension system, and continuing the fight against inflation. Tax revenues were indexed to inflation but many government expenditures were not. Salaries were frozen; basic goods were only chilled down a bit. Government spending far exceeded income, so inflation worked as a mechanism to hide the sins of the federal government. For most of the latter half of the 20th century, inflation has been a way of life for the Brazilians. Basically this was a tax imposed on the poor, allowing government to spend freely. It has been for more than four decades a primary source of public sector financing. In short, different kinds of reforms pose quite different political challenges, for reasons intrinsic to the character of the reforms themselves. The fact that late-stage reform agendas concentrate on complex institutional reforms helps to explain why the pace of reform in most countries almost always slows substantially after initial stages. To move beyond the broadest generalizations regarding the politics of economic reform and the capacities required to promote them, the concept of reform itself must be taken apart. Different kinds of reforms pose quite different political challenges. Even the different phases of any specific reform entail different political tasks and demand different tactics and capacities. Discussions of the politics of reform often fail to recognize these variations. Many economists used to B and some still do B talk about â€Å"political will† on the part of top-level leaders as the necessary and sufficient requirement for effective reform. Some of the metaphorical language used in discussions of reform convey a similar message: â€Å"bite the bullet†, â€Å"just do it. That implicit image of the reform process may roughly describe a single-shot devaluation decision. But it is clearly very misleading for more complex measures. Recognizing the varied character and political challenges of different reforms, and the tendency for complex institutional changes to be late and slow are first steps toward understanding why some kinds of reforms move faster than others, and why the pace of reforms tend to slow down almost everywhere. At the far end of the spectrum are systemic reforms in the major social services, primarily education and health care finance and delivery. Multiple models are available, influenced by very different national and regional traditions and histories. More important, there is only limited consensus among technical specialists regarding basic principles of reform. Experts argue bitterly over the merits of, say, single-payer health care systems or charter schools. They agree only very partially on the principles that should guide the degree and design of privatization or decentralization. Therefore, public debate regarding the design and priorities of reform tends to be diffuse and inconclusive. Even after initial agreement is reached regarding social service reforms, implementing them is extremely complex. Executive agencies and legislatures at national, state, and local levels are usually involved. Reforms intended to increase efficiency and save money in the long-run may nonetheless have high up-front costs. Not only the Ministry of Finance but often sub-national financial authorities must concur. Many social sector reforms require years to implement. A great deal of detailed information is required to fine-tune design of successive steps. Much of that information is not available without new arrangements to gather it. All of these complications are reinforced by the fact that, even where there is widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo, postponing action does not carry obvious and prompt risks. The varied character of different reforms — availability or absence of a consensus model or clear parameters for debate, timetable, number and variety of actors, information requirements, apparent costs of delay — shape the political challenges. If many actors must co-operate to put a reform into effect, any one of them can weaken or stop the reform. In other words, there are many potential veto actors. Decisions taken by the executive run high risks of being blocked in the legislature or sabotaged in the course of implementation. Moreover, the large number of actors increases transaction and enforcement costs. If implementation takes many years, there are many potential veto opportunities. The length of time required to get most complex institutional reforms up and running also means that the benefits of the reforms may not become apparent for some time. Therefore it may be hard to mobilize pro-reform coalitions to counter opposition from vested interests, which are likely to resist from the outset. Information requirements also affect the course of reform. Lack of information may stall action; new information may alter perceptions and reopen debates. Complex institutional reforms are the result of an extended process, not an event. The process is subject to stops and starts; issues regarded as closed may be re-opened and steps already taken may need to be repeated. The process is not linear, but iterative. The varied characteristics of different kinds of reforms also suggests why reforms in some sectors have made much more progress than others, in cross-national perspective. For example, far-reaching pension reforms have been adopted in many more countries, in and beyond Latin America, than have introduced similarly basic changes in education or health care systems. In conclusion, I believe that International Widgets will find that Brazil would be a great place to open shop (do new business). Brazil’s future is largely in it’s own hands. With there constitutional tax reform there are many changes which in turn will enhance social rights such a job stability, foreign and national capital enterprise, and several other areas pertaining to basic human rights. Brazil risks serious setbacks and instability if it fails to proceed with reform. Inflation, government spending and foreign investment has remained stable. There was general agreement on the need for policy changes. International pressures will help Brazil to make difficult but necessary choices. There was strong agreement that Brazil would benefit from becoming more international in its business relationships. Nearly all believed Brazil needed to expand its export industries. However, three out of four felt that Brazil was highly vulnerable to international economic and financial disruptions. Doing more to deal with social issues now is important to maintain stability so growth can proceed. Brazil’s economy will soon recover from its recession. -Brazilians believed that Brazil’s economy will be more stable in the future and so do I. Brazil will continue to have to strike a difficult balance between budget cutting and other policies to promote economic growth and addressing social issues. Domestic stability, in a context of vulnerability to external shocks resulting from globalized factors, is distinctively credited to political, economic and demographic processes whose outcomes can only be expected to occur in the long run. A transition towards a more pragmatic, pedestrian view of politics and politicians is emerging and a highly demanding electorate should be expected to voice new interests and needs.

Grit Vs. Iq Cognitive Development Essay - 965 Words

Grit vs IQ: Essentiality Towards Cognitive Development Cognitive development can be defined as a field of study in neuroscience and psychology revolving around the growth of the brain (Schacter Woods 2009). This development is the evolution of skills such as, information processing, perceptual skills, conceptual resourcing, language knowledge and other brain development traits (ibid). Passion and determination towards long term goals (otherwise known as ‘grit’) are parts of cognitive development. (Kantrowitz 2016). Grit is seen to be necessary for academic expertise in all fields ranging from sciences to the arts. (Ericsson, Prietula and Cokely 2007). Natural born Intelligence Quotient, also known as ‘IQ’, is described as a person’s ability to complete problems and understand concepts. This is compared across the population to give an average IQ score (Latham 2006). However, can this number accurately measure whether a human will become an expert in a field sooner than a grittier person? The focus of this essay is to evaluate whether grit or IQ has the most positive effect on cognitive development. Throughout history there have been demonstrations of grit and the correlation to cognitive ability developing strongly through childhood. Mozart, was most commonly related to being a â€Å"child prodigy†, having an extremely high IQ and musically based talent (Ericsson, Prietula and Cokely 2007, p. 3). What is not universally known about the development of his abilityShow MoreRelatedDeveloping Management Skills404131 Words   |  1617 PagesINTRODUCTION 1 3 THE CRITICAL ROLE OF MANAGEMENT SKILLS The Importance of Competent Managers 6 The Skills of Effective Managers 7 Essential Management Skills 8 What Are Management Skills? 9 Improving Management Skills 12 An Approach to Skill Development 13 Leadership and Management 16 Contents of the Book 18 Organization of the Book 19 Practice and Application 21 Diversity and Individual Differences 21 Summary 23 SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 24 Diagnostic Survey and Exercises 24 Personal Assessment